Mining in Africa: Governance capacity, sovereignty, and execution risk
Executive summary
Africa hosts some of the world’s most strategically significant mineral endowments, yet mining outcomes across the continent vary sharply by jurisdiction. The determining factor is not resource quality, but governance capacity and sovereignty management.
This brief examines African mining through a non-technical risk lens, focusing on how state capacity, institutional credibility, and political incentives shape project execution. The central finding is that African mining risk is frequently mispriced: high political risk does not necessarily imply low execution potential, and low-risk narratives often obscure structural fragility.
1. Africa’s strategic mineral position
African jurisdictions are central to global supply chains for:
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Copper
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Cobalt
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Manganese
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Lithium
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Graphite
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Rare earth-associated minerals
These materials underpin electrification, defence production, and industrial manufacturing. As a result, African mining projects increasingly carry geopolitical relevance beyond their host states.
However, strategic importance does not translate uniformly into stable execution environments.
2. Governance capacity as the primary variable
African mining outcomes are best explained by differences in governance capacity rather than by regime type or formal legal systems.
Key variables include:
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Regulatory coherence and enforcement consistency
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Fiscal regime stability
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State ability to manage contracts and concessions
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Political control over subnational authorities
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Alignment between central government and security forces
Jurisdictions with limited capacity may offer favourable legal terms while failing to deliver predictability in practice.
3. Resource sovereignty and state behaviour
Resource sovereignty in African mining is not inherently hostile to investment. In many cases, it reflects rational state behaviour aimed at preserving leverage over strategic assets.
Sovereignty-driven interventions may include:
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Renegotiation of fiscal terms
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Increased state participation
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Localisation requirements
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Pressure on processing and value addition
Execution risk emerges when sovereignty assertions are episodic, reactive, or poorly coordinated across institutions.
4. Political risk vs. execution risk
A common analytical error in African mining is the conflation of political risk with execution risk.
In practice:
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High political risk environments can deliver projects quickly under centralised authority
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Low political risk narratives can mask weak institutions and policy volatility
Execution risk is driven by:
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Contract credibility
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Dispute resolution pathways
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Elite incentive alignment
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Continuity of administrative authority
Projects succeed where these factors are stable, regardless of broader political conditions.
5. Foreign actors and strategic competition
African mining is increasingly shaped by competition among foreign state-backed and private actors.
This introduces:
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Asymmetric bargaining power
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Competing standards and timelines
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External political pressure on host governments
For project proponents, foreign involvement can either stabilise execution through long-term commitments or exacerbate volatility through geopolitical contestation.
6. Implications for industry and policy
For industry:
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African mining requires jurisdiction-specific analysis, not continental generalisations
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Governance capacity and elite incentives should be treated as core project variables
For policymakers and financiers:
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Risk mitigation depends on institutional engagement, not reputational narratives
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Overreliance on formal legal frameworks without political analysis increases exposure
Africa’s mining future will be shaped less by mineral endowment than by how states assert and manage sovereignty over extraction and value chains.
Notes from the author
This brief applies a non-technical risk and governance-focused perspective to African mining, drawing on political analysis, institutional assessment, and comparative jurisdictional evaluation.
